Peer-Reviewed Papers
[8] "Colonial Rule and Economic Freedom" (2025)
Public Choice (forthcoming)
This paper studies the legacy of European colonial rule for economic freedom in former colonies. I find that current levels of economic freedom in former colonies are directly related to the level of economic freedom of their colonizers. This association can be seen as early as the time of independence. I also find that additional European settlement from colonizers with high (low) economic freedom contributes to (detracts from) the overall economic freedom of their colonies. These results are robust to selection on unobservables and to controls for geography, climate, natural resource endowments, colonizer identity, settlement patterns, and precolonial characteristics. The difference in modern-day economic freedom associated with being colonized by the freest colonizer instead of the least free implies a predicted increase in modern-day per capita income of up to US$10,000.
[7] "The Politics of Lockdown Policies: Evidence from Brazilian States" (2025)
with Vincent Miozzi
Economic Affairs (forthcoming)
We introduce a novel state-level measure of lockdown regulatory freedom to study the severity of lockdowns for Brazilian states and its determinants. Our main results show that lockdown policies were not consistently determined by any health-related variable, such as the number of doctors, hospital beds, the share of the population with private health insurance, or the share of the population 65 years of age and older or Covid-19 cases and deaths. Indeed, the only variable consistently related to lockdown policies in all specifications and robustness checks was the state’s share of votes for the right-wing candidate. A one standard deviation increase in the share of votes for the right-wing candidate is associated with a 0.6-0.87 standard deviation increase in lockdown stringency. Our results highlight the importance of political economy considerations in explaining the incentives of policymakers when designing health policies.
[6] "The Political Economy of Populism Regime Length" (2025).
with Nicolás Cachanosky and Tomás Faintich
Constitutional Political Economy (forthcoming)
Left-leaning populist regimes in 21st-century Latin America have become notoriously long, including some that maintained their power by repealing term limits. Along with changes in external factors, we argue that repealing term limits allowed populist leaders to develop longer time horizons and behave more like stationary than roving bandits. We show that, relative to those constrained by time limits, unconstrained populist leaders mitigate the economic effects of the populist cycle of boom, stagnation, and bust. Populists constrained by term limits act like roving bandits, engaging in more extractive rent-seeking that leads to more significant economic fluctuations.
[5] "The Institutional Impact of Left-Leaning Populism in Latin America" (2025).
with Nicolás Cachanosky, Alex Padilla, and Karla Hernández.
European Journal of Political Economy, 86: 102629
We study the institutional impact 21st-century left-leaning populist regimes have in Latin America. Looking at the iconic left-leaning populist regimes in Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, we find that these types of populist regimes impose a significant deterioration on the liberal-democracy institutional quality of their countries. The institutional cost is both significant and long-lasting, and our synthetic counterfactual suggests that liberal democratic institutions would have improved if not for these populist regimes.
[4] "Gender and corruption in firms: The importance of regional context" (2024).
with Jamie Bologna Pavlik
The Review of Development Economics, 29(2): 795-830
The idea that there are gendered differences in corruption in the political arena is common. Two explanations for these differences include risk aversion and network effects. However, business leaders include a self-selected group of individuals who are comparatively risk-tolerant and well-connected. Using firm-level data for 144 countries from 2006 to 2019, we test whether female-run businesses engage in corruption differently than men. In the aggregate, we find a potentially puzzling result: female-managed firms are engaged in less corruption and report it being less of an obstacle compared to their male counterparts; female-owned firms are just the opposite. Once we disaggregate the data into region-specific estimates, a clearer pattern emerges. Corruption is more harmful for female-run firms in the areas of the world that have more gender inequality overall.
[3] "Female Ownership of Firms and Regulation Experience" (2024).
with Jamie Bologna Pavlik
The Journal of Development Studies, 60(9): 1412-1434.
Using firm-level data and two alternative matching methods, our results suggest that firms with at least one female owner report that senior management spends a larger percentage of their time dealing with regulations. We also find that construction permits take approximately 4–7 days longer to obtain for these same firms. Lastly, we find that female-owned firms perceive labor regulations to be a larger obstacle to business operations. In all cases, these effects tend to be largest in countries with the most disparity in de jure rules.
[2] "Economics Against Tyranny: A Reassesment of the Liberal Order of Mises and Hayek" (2019).
MISES: Interdisciplinary Journal of Philosophy, Law, and Economics 7(2): 1-11
2nd Prize, Article Competition in Honour of Gabriel Oliva, VI Conferência de Escola Austríaca, Instituto Mises Brasil.
[1] "Competição e Monopólio: o Mainstream e a Escola Austríaca" (2016)
MISES: Interdisciplinary Journal of Philosophy, Law, and Economics 4(2): 377-390
Edited Books
Conhecimento e Coordenação Social, 2018. Série Fundamentos da Liberdade. Porto Alegre: Instituto Atlantos (w/ Gustavo Inácio de Moraes).
Under Review
Bastos, JP. Colonial Rule and Economic Freedom.
Revisions requested for Public Choice
Bastos, JP, Miozzi, Vincent. Political Determinants of Lockdown Policy and State Economic Freedom in Brazil.
Revision requested at Economic Affairs
Bastos, JP, Bologna Pavlik, J. Does Corruption Deter Female Leadership in Firms?
Revisions requested at Journal of Institutional Economics.
Bastos, JP, Bologna Pavlik, J., Callais, J. Corruption and Political Allocation of Entrepreneurs
Working Papers
Bastos, JP, Geloso, V., Bologna Pavlik, J. The Forsaken Road: Reassessing Living Standards Following the Cuban Revolution and the American Embargo
Bastos, JP, Simonetti-Neto, Silvio. The Economic Consequences of Plano Real: A Synthetic Control Approach
Bastos, JP, Dal Molin, R. The Causal Effects of Infrastructure-Led Development: Evidence from Iceland's ``Beloved War''
Bastos, J.P. Corruption and Unproductive Entrepreneurship: Evidence from Brazil
Bastos, J.P. Does joining the OECD improve economic performance?
Bastos, J.P. Can the FIFA World Cup increase economic activity? Evidence from labor markets in the 2014 Brazil edition
Book Reviews
The Puzzle of Prison Order: Why Life behind Bars Varies around the World by David Skarbek, The Independent Review, 27(1), 2022.